Conflict? What Conflict?
You’d expect a military strike in the Middle East to send crude oil soaring and stocks into retreat. Instead, the opposite happened:
- Oil fell more than 5% on the week
- The VIX stayed in the teens – calm as ever (and dropping further with peace talks on the table)
- The S&P 500 surged to ~6,088, within a whisper of its all-time high
Markets didn’t just absorb the shock—they ignored it. That says a lot about where investor attention really is: not in war zones, but in the Fed’s next move and corporate earnings strength.
Technical Check-In
- S&P 500 (SPX) yesterday in the early afternoon: ~6,088
- All-Time High: 6,147.43 (intraday), 6,144.15 (closing)
- Resistance Zone: 6,147–6,150
- Next Target: 6,200
- Support: 6,050 (minor), then round-number 6,000
A breakout through 6,150 clears the path for 6,200+—especially with volume thinning and seasonal tailwinds picking up.
Why Bulls Still Have the Ball
There’s a rhythm to late June trading, and history shows it favors the bulls. The run-up to the July 4th holiday tends to bring lighter volume, positive fund flows, and—more often than not—stock gains.
That momentum’s already visible. The Nasdaq popped ~0.5%, thanks to Tesla’s ~9% rally on robotaxi hype. The Russell 2000 climbed ~0.8%, powered by stronger-than-expected earnings in small-cap land. Even the usually slow-moving Dow stayed positive.
And tariffs? They’re not even part of the conversation anymore. That’s telling.
Under the Hood: Small-Caps Quietly Winning
The Russell 2000’s move might seem modest, but it’s backed by real numbers:
- Russell 2000 earnings growth: +10.5% YoY
- Ex-energy earnings: +23.5% YoY
- Market internals improving, with breadth holding steady across sectors
When small-caps lead quietly in the background, it usually signals that risk appetite is broad, not just mega-cap driven.
What’s Next?
All eyes now turn to:
- Fed Chair Powell’s testimony next week
- Q2 earnings season, kicking off in early July
- Any shift in the VIX: if it climbs above 20-22, expect a sentiment reset
But barring a shock, markets look comfortable grinding higher.
Bottom Line: This market doesn’t flinch. The S&P is inches from all-time highs. Volatility is low. Oil fell after a bombing. And investors? They’re positioning for a seasonal push into July with eyes on 6,200. If you’re waiting for the sky to fall, you might be waiting a while.
