Volatility Strikes Back
What is going on right now? How did we go from one of the strongest days in recent history to one of the worst? The S&P 500 lost over 1.25% in a single trading session, which is usually a sign of panic, but yet almost all market sectors are trading higher than 5 days ago. Is this selloff just on the marquee names or is there something more behind this? The jam-packed week of earnings and the Fed didn’t disappoint, but let’s examine what could be next for this market.
This Is Going To Be A Wild Week
The market sold off last week and experienced a “worst day since…” headline. Then the market turned around and experienced a, “best day since…” headline on Friday. Investors’ turmoil in the last week made many want to throw their hands up and sit on the sidelines. And that was just the precursor to one of the most important trading weeks of the year. Let’s dive into everything you need to know for the week ahead!
Why This Pullback Is Different And What You Can Expect To Happen As A Result
Stocks had one of the worst days in over a year and one of the worst weeks in recent memory. If you were trading at all in the last week you know what I’m talking about, but now isn’t the time to run for the hills. While this July has been anything but normal, this pullback has been caused by something lurking under the surface for some time, that most traders weren’t paying attention to. Let’s get into the market technicals and what you can expect from here.
Relative Rotation and Relative Strength Can Guide You During Times Like This
Last week I wrote about sector rotation away from the Mag-7 stocks into a broad-based bullish move by the rest of the market. This week I want to show you a few methods of how you can witness sector rotation and be on the right side of these market moves. This can be done using relative rotational graphs and the relative strength indicator.
The Great Sector Rotation
As more economic indicators are pointing to inflation coming under control, the Fed started to signal that a rate cut may be coming this year after all. I’ll be the first to admit I thought they’d steer clear of the September time frame to avoid being accused of being political, but it seems like the Fed, U.S. Politicians, and investors are on a collision course for September. As a precursor to the main event, we see how quickly the markets can react and throw previous stock favorites out to the curb. Here’s what you need to know and how you can benefit from the great sector rotation
Trend Following Simplified: Using “PriceTimeFilteringBarCount” for Better Trades
Schwab recently released some improvements for their desktop platform, ThinkorSwim. Aside from being able to select a GTC order as your default, one of the other improvements came in the form of a new trend indicator. Sure, the indicator’s name should have gone through some type of user experience group or a focus group. Still, naming aside, I will show you what you need to know and how you can use the new, “PriceTimeFilteringBarCount” indicator.
S&P 500: Are We Headed for a Bear Market or a 5-Year Bull Run?
Don’t look now, but the S&P 500 is up over a staggering 50% since October 2022 and is currently up over 15% in the first half of 2024. At this point, it’s no surprise that the bears are peaking out from their slumber, and news articles are using fear-mongering to warn of impending doom. And yet other analysts are touting this is just the beginning of a five-year bull run. Who is right? What should you expect in the second half of the year? I have what you need to know and what you need to watch out for.
Fireworks and More For The Stock Market
The Fed has been encouraged by the barrage of weakening economic news, and so once again investors have found that to be a green light to be bullish, and that optimism sent the market to fresh highs, right before the market closed for the U.S. holiday. While bad economic news may mean bad news for the market one day, that time isn’t yet, but it may be sooner than you think. I’ll show you some charts that you need to know now.
Investors Are No Longer Fearful, But Should They Be?
Underwhelming earning reports and other economic data are showing that the Fed could get the data it needs to finally consider cutting rates sooner than later. However, as my colleagues have said many times, eventually bad news is going to be just that – bad news. For now, investors seem hopeful that a weakening economy will lead to cut rates that will, in turn, boost the economy back higher while keeping inflation at bay. So, how bad is the data coming in and what can you do about it to keep your portfolio safe?
Quarter-End Reflections: Seasonal Patterns and Market Predictions
It may be hard to believe, but we’re nearing the end of another quarter in 2024, which means volatility should pick up with the return of earnings season. We’re also nearing a presidential election in the U.S., but first, let’s not forget inflation and the Fed. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s take a look at a few of the items impacting the market now, and see if we can tell where the market may be heading.
