S&P 500: Are We Headed for a Bear Market or a 5-Year Bull Run?

Bear Market or a 5-Year Bull Run?

Don’t look now, but the S&P 500 is up over a staggering 50% since October 2022 and is currently up over 15% in the first half of 2024. At this point, it’s no surprise that the bears are peaking out from their slumber, and news articles are using fear-mongering to warn of impending doom. And yet other analysts are touting this is just the beginning of a five-year bull run. Who is right? What should you expect in the second half of the year? I have what you need to know and what you need to watch out for.

Fireworks and More For The Stock Market

Fireworks and More For The Stock Market

The Fed has been encouraged by the barrage of weakening economic news, and so once again investors have found that to be a green light to be bullish, and that optimism sent the market to fresh highs, right before the market closed for the U.S. holiday. While bad economic news may mean bad news for the market one day, that time isn’t yet, but it may be sooner than you think. I’ll show you some charts that you need to know now.

Investors Are No Longer Fearful, But Should They Be?

Investors Are No Longer Fearful, But Should They Be?

Underwhelming earning reports and other economic data are showing that the Fed could get the data it needs to finally consider cutting rates sooner than later. However, as my colleagues have said many times, eventually bad news is going to be just that – bad news. For now, investors seem hopeful that a weakening economy will lead to cut rates that will, in turn, boost the economy back higher while keeping inflation at bay. So, how bad is the data coming in and what can you do about it to keep your portfolio safe?

Quarter-End Reflections: Seasonal Patterns and Market Predictions

Quarter-End Reflections: Seasonal Patterns and Market Predictions

It may be hard to believe, but we’re nearing the end of another quarter in 2024, which means volatility should pick up with the return of earnings season. We’re also nearing a presidential election in the U.S., but first, let’s not forget inflation and the Fed. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves, let’s take a look at a few of the items impacting the market now, and see if we can tell where the market may be heading.

Don’t Let the Quadruple Witching Scare You

quadruple witching day

Four times a year, once each quarter, we are met with what is called a quadruple witching day, and no it has nothing to do with ghouls or goblins. Yet some investors stay away from the market even though there are plenty of opportunities if you know what to look for. Let’s discuss what the day is, what typically happens before and after the day occurs, and how you can profit from it.

Market Ignores Hawkish Fed, Cheers CPI

Market Euphoria

The Fed rate frenzy is almost getting as hyped as seeing Roaring Kitty return to trading GME after years of being silent. All investors watched as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers signaled ongoing disinflation. While stocks shot higher on Wednesday, investors ignored the Fed presentation later in the day. That was a mistake as the Fed laid out a troubling scenario.

Let’s start with the good news. Consumer Prices are rising less than the consensus range. For example, the year-over-year number was expected to increase by 3.4%, whereas the actual CPI number came in at 3.3%.

Is It Time To Get Into Value Investing Again?

Value Investing

Mega-cap tech stocks continue to dominate the market, but beneath their success lies a growing unease among investors about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies. While these tech giants boast substantial cash reserves and can withstand a “higher for longer” strategy, the average S&P 500 stock is more vulnerable than ever to rising yields. Although the S&P 500 is up for the year, not all companies are sharing in the glory.

Is It Time To Sell In May and Go Away?

Sell in May and Go Away?

It’s the end of a wild month. We saw Nvidia blow out earnings once again, treasury yields spiked, putting a damper on the bull rally, and now the market is wondering if a July Fed cut will happen. With most of this earnings season out of the way, rising yields are the headwind of this market moving higher. But why are they rising now? What’s in store for June? Let’s review what the charts tell us.

Is It NVDA or Bust Today?

Anticipation Builds

Today is the day the market has been waiting for. The rally from all-time highs stalled as the market awaits the Nvidia (NVDA) earnings report. The macroeconomic calendar is fairly light this week, so it all comes down to this moment. Will the bears wake from hibernation or will the bulls stomp higher to new ground? How did the market respond the last time Nvidia announced?

Market Soars To New Highs – Now What?

It wasn’t long ago that I wrote an article about how I disagreed with the adage, “Sell in May and Go Away.” The major indices shook off a rocky April and soared to new heights, but the question I get all the time is, “With markets at new highs, when is a good time to enter?” What typically happens when markets make new highs? Is it best to wait from here? What I found out might surprise you.