January 26, 2022

If You're Looking For Opportunity...

Markets have been wild.

But it’s not really a surprise.

For weeks, we’ve had no real clarity on what the Federal Reserve plans to do.  And you know as well as I do that markets hate uncertainty.  

However, there’s hope we’ll get some clarity when the Fed speaks later today.  

“Today the focus is going to be on the Fed,” said Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Pictet Asset Management, as quoted by The Wall Street Journal. “It’s more about the tone of the press conference. People may have an expectation that given the market turmoil and the geopolitical tensions the Fed may tone down its rhetoric.” 

If the Fed can help calm the market, we could rally significantly higher.  At the moment, Dow futures are up 326 points, as investors bet on a bottom.

Also, as we noted yesterday, the Dow is also severely oversold.

After plummeting from a high of 36,952 to 33,545 the Dow has become incredibly oversold on relative strength (RSI), MACD, and on Williams’ %R.  If you pull up a two-year chart, you can see that each time these three indicators align this deep in oversold territory, markets bounce back.

If you’re looking for opportunity…

Tech stocks – like Microsoft (MSFT) – may be bottoming out.

After failing at triple top resistance around $345 to a low of $285.17, the stock appears to have caught strong support dating back to October.  Plus, it’s also severely oversold on RSI, MACD, and Williams’ %R.  Better, earnings weren’t bad at all.

In its second quarter, the company posted adjusted EPS of $2.48, as compared to expectations for $2.31.  Revenue of $51.73 billion was above estimates for $50.88 billion.  

Analysts like the stock here, too.

“We’d be buyers here,” said Christopher Ouimet, a portfolio manager at Logan Capital, as quoted by CNBC. “We think there’s a lot of noise in the marketplace right now. Most of the high-growth stocks are getting washed out here, but we don’t really feel like the 10-year going from 1.5% to 1.8% means Microsoft isn’t going to be able to sell Azure contracts.”

Even Piper Jaffray says the MSFT pullback is overdone.

From a current price of $288.49, we’d like to see MSFT again challenge triple top resistance around $345 again, near-term.

Hopefully, we’ll see that happen again soon.

All we can tell you is that the fear, the pullback, the Federal Reserve concerns, the issues over Ukraine are getting old. Plus, most of it has been priced into the market already.

It’s just something to think about as you decide what to do next.

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