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October 3rd, 2022
It’s Good To Be Back
I’m back – Jeff, that is. It looks like I picked a good time to go on vacation and move primarily to cash. Every time I turned my phone on, the market was down. I was still able to put on a few profitable trades using a strategy I’ll be sharing at this year’s Millionaire’s Trading Conference. I was out of the country, turned my phone on for a few minutes, placed some trades and that was it. More on that later. The good news is that the current oversold conditions are pointing to a potential rebound.
The only thing is that I’m not expecting another double digital rally that we saw mid-summer this time.
If you follow market seasonality, I warned you about September historically being a rough time for the markets. Seasonality shows we have another two weeks or so of weakness before we head into several weeks of strength, so I’ll have a few ideas over the coming days to get you ready if we do see a bit of a bounce.
For now, let’s get ready for the week ahead.
Here are the reports coming out this week that have the greatest chance of moving the markets.
Monday – Manufacturing Index – We are expecting to see modest growth compared to last month and while that seems like it would be good, remember the Fed is looking for a recession to fix inflation so change, in this case, may not be good after all.
Wednesday – International Trade – With a strong dollar we are expecting to see imports shrink and for the trade deficit to narrow for a fifth straight month.
Thursday – Jobless Claims – The four-week moving average is down to 207k and the consensus this week is about 203k, up from last week’s 193k. Last week’s numbers were much lower than expected and the recession conversation will come back up once the four-week average is above 300k. Remember, the good news is bad here. Higher jobless claims mean a softening job market, which can help bring inflation down.
Friday – Employment Situation – The unemployment rate is still set to be about 3.7% with a 62.4% participation rate. Month-over-month average earnings are set to be flat, but year-over-year is showing a slight decline from last month’s 5.2% reading. Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to be lower than last month, but last month was higher than expected. August was the fifth straight month that payroll growth exceeded expectations. What all of this means is that the job market has some weakness in pockets, but overall is still strong for now.
If you haven’t heard, I’ll be a guest speaker at this year’s Millionaire’s Trading Club Conference in Las Vegas. I’ll be presenting a strategy that you will be able to start using right away (although I recommend you paper trade it first) to potentially make 25% in as little as four days. It’s the same strategy that I used while on vacation because it only takes a few clicks to set up and it only looks at one ticker. I hope you’re one of the ones going to the event in person or virtually.
Ok, that’s it for today.
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