What’s Propping This Market Up?
After wobbling early Thursday, markets reversed higher thanks to a pair of Fed-friendly data prints:
- Unemployment claims stayed stuck at an 8-month high (248,000).
Core PPI eased to 3.0% year-over-year, better than expectations
Put together, that gave bulls exactly what they wanted: more evidence of a cooling economy without the sting of recession. That drove the 10-year yield down to 4.36%, and stocks floated higher into the close.
But here’s the part most aren’t talking about: breadth was weak, small-caps lagged, and there’s still no conviction in the downside trade.
VIX Says… Nothing’s Wrong?
The VIX closed around 18 yesterday, only modestly higher this week. We should see a spike after the airstrikes from Israel on Iran.
Inverse ETFs like SPXU, SQQQ, and RWM didn’t budge.
- Vol is still pricing in calm—even with looming geopolitical headlines and an overbought tape.
That doesn’t scream fear. It signals hesitation. Bulls are holding, but nobody’s chasing.
🔍 Sectors and Stocks on the Radar
In this environment, you want to be in names with macro tailwinds or sector momentum. Here’s what’s working—and why:
Healthcare
Cardinal Health (CAH), Cigna (CI), UnitedHealth (UNH), and Elevance (ELV) led this week. Defensive growth + rate-sensitive = hot again.
Cloud & AI
- Oracle (ORCL) surged on earnings. That lifted sentiment around Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), and Datadog (DDOG).
Gold Miners & Energy
- Geopolitical risk and softening yields boosted gold and oil.
Watch Newmont (NEM), Anglogold (AU), XOM, CVX, and SLB—especially if headlines intensify.
Airlines & Travel
- This space is cracking. Airfare fell for the 4th month in a row.
LUV, UAL, and AAL all sank on demand concerns.
What to Watch Next Week
Short Week = Thin Volume
Markets are closed next Thursday for Juneteenth, which usually means light trading and headline-driven moves. Expect some chop. There’s bullish seasonality around the holiday though.
🌍 Geopolitics
- The U.S.–Iran nuclear talks resume Sunday. If they break down, oil spikes—and so might gold and defense names.
- Tensions with China and trade policy could resurface as Trump pushes his tariff agenda into July.
- Israel launched airstrikes on Iran.
Sentiment & Fed Watch
- With the Fed likely to not make a move next week, economic prints and positioning will drive the market
- A weak consumer sentiment read today could tip the market toward defensiveness.
How to Position
The S&P is nearing its highs, but there’s no conviction from sellers yet. That means:
✅ Trim winners into strength.
✅ Buy selective exposure in gold, healthcare, and cloud.
✅ Use covered calls to reduce risk while keeping core positions.
✅ Watch SPY near 604–606. That’s key resistance. A failure there could lead to a quick pullback.
Still bullish? Protect it. Cheap SPY/QQQ puts give you a buffer without giving up upside.
Waiting to short? Don’t force it. Look for confirmation—a VIX spike, a rollover in breadth, or a failed breakout.
Final Word
The rally’s still alive, but it’s looking tired. There’s no panic—yet—but this tape feels more like a pause than a launchpad. With light volume ahead and no margin for error, next week could get choppy.
Don’t confuse a quiet VIX with a quiet market.
