What’s Moving Markets?
Two key narratives shaped today’s trading: corporate earnings and geopolitical developments.
- Intel Surges, Nike Moves Higher
Intel shares soared over 16% after reports of potential deals with Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co surfaced. Investors see this as a sign of improving chip demand—a bullish signal for the broader tech sector. INTC is operating on speculation now, but should the positive news continue, I’m looking for it to fill that gap and head up to around $30 before slowing down.
- Meanwhile, Nike jumped 6% after announcing a new women’s brand in collaboration with Kim Kardashian’s Skims. As exciting as that is, I’ve been mainly neutral to bearish on NKE for years. Maybe this partnership will be enough to lift their products to a level people will be willing to buy, but in the meantime, I’d like to see it clear the 200-day moving average (around $80) before going too bullish. The Kardashian clan still has a following, but is it enough?
- The Federal Reserve’s Upcoming Decision
Amid ongoing inflation worries, investors are keenly anticipating the release of the Federal Reserve’s January meeting minutes this week. Markets are factoring in possible rate cuts for this summer; however, if the Fed indicates that rates will remain elevated for an extended period, some volatility can be expected. The report will be published at 2:00 pm EST.
- Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks?
Geopolitical risks remain a wildcard. Reports suggest U.S. and Russian officials are discussing a potential peace agreement in Ukraine. If this materializes, it could relieve global energy markets and ease inflation pressures, particularly in Europe. However, markets tend to react swiftly to shifting geopolitical winds, so expect volatility if these talks fall apart.
Where Does the Market Go From Here?
We’re at record highs, but can the rally continue?
🔹 Technicals Show Strength, but Key Levels Matter
The S&P 500’s breakout above 6,100 is a strong bullish signal but watch for support at this level in the coming days. If it holds, momentum could push the index toward 6,150+. If we see a reversal, a pullback to 5,950–6,000 is possible. Using the ETF, SPY, we can see the index finally broke above resistance, and so far, we have been uploading that level as support. It’s only two days in, but it’s already better than the January 24th to January 25th gap.
🔹 Earnings Season Winds Down
Most major earnings are in, but Walmart’s results (due soon) will provide clues on consumer strength. Weak guidance from retailers could signal trouble ahead. The company will do just fine if it uses the 10 EMA (red) or 20 EMA (orange) as an area of support. I’m not convinced that inflation will lower fast enough, so I could see WMT gaining strength as the inflation battle wages on.
🔹 Bond Yields & Rate Cut Expectations
If bond yields start rising again, stocks could face pressure. Investors are betting on Fed rate cuts later this year, but the market may need to adjust if inflation doesn’t cooperate.
Final Thoughts
The market is still in “buy the dip” mode, but risks are increasing. Whether it’s geopolitical uncertainty, Fed policy, or stretched valuations, things could get bumpy.
What to watch:
- S&P 500 support at 6,100
- Fed minutes released this week
- Russia-Ukraine peace talk updates
- Walmart earnings for consumer health insights
If the rally stalls, a pullback could be healthy. But as long as fundamentals stay strong, the bulls still have control.
