Despite all the economic warning signs—rising debt, sticky inflation, and soft earnings—consumers are still going all in on experience. Road trips are up. Air travel is up. Memorial Day 2025 is on track to break records with over 45 million people expected to travel, most of them by car, thanks to sub-$3.10 gas.
It’s a strong signal that travel demand is alive and well, and certain sectors—cruise lines, rideshare, lodging, outdoor retail—could see short-term gains from that momentum. But that doesn’t mean they all trade the same.
We ran a seasonal backtest on top travel and leisure stocks to measure how they perform in the 1 to 30 days after Memorial Day. The data covers 4 to 10 years of post-holiday price action. Here’s what stood out.
What the Data Says
💥 Best Performers:
- Deckers Outdoor (DECK) leads the pack. Over 10 years, it’s returned 10.57% on average with 80% accuracy. That’s the power of comfort-driven travel gear like HOKA and UGG.
- Airbnb (ABNB) has a shorter track record (4 years), but boasts 75% accuracy and a 5.90% gain—not bad for a “new” stock.
- Carnival (CCL) and Royal Caribbean (RCL) both look solid, especially RCL with 70% win rate and 4.4% gains.
🚩 Weak Spots:
- Hotel stocks like Marriott (MAR) and Hilton (HLT) underwhelm, both hovering around breakeven.
- Booking Holdings (BKNG) and Cracker Barrel (CBRL) actually show negative returns over the 10-year period. Familiar names, but underwhelming trades.
📈 ETF Edge:
- QQQ (Nasdaq 100) quietly outperforms most travel names with a 90% win rate and 2.89% average gain.
- Even SPY (S&P 500), with its 70% accuracy and 1.23% average gain, beats a good chunk of the list.
This suggests that while a few travel names pop, the broad market often offers more consistent upside in the post-Memorial stretch.
Bottom Line
Just because travel is booming doesn’t mean every travel stock follows suit. The data points to decked-out footwear (DECK) and short-term rentals (ABNB) as the most reliable Memorial Day momentum plays.
But if you’re looking for stability and performance? The broader indices—especially QQQ—might be the smarter seasonal trade.
Alright! I’m outta here for the long weekend!
I hope you find time to disconnect, reflect, and recharge.
Here’s to remembering what matters—and staying sharp for the week ahead.
