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August 8th, 2022
I was having my morning cup of coffee on Sunday, I looked at my news feed on my phone and started to laugh. From this image you can see the progression of how various outlets reported on the jobs news over the last week.
Our next resistance levels are 416, 433, and 453.
You can see the next level of resistance a little better by drilling down to the daily chart.
This has been a line of support in the past and turned into a line of resistance. I thought we were overbought last week, but we ended up mostly flat. With the VIX trading lower, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a somewhat flat week ahead, staying somewhere between 406 and 421.
Ok, let’s get to the reports you need to know about this week.
Wednesday – CPI (MoM and YoY) – Analysts are projecting that the Consumer Price Index goes down in both month-over-month and year-over-year categories. The Fed will be forced into aggressive action if we don’t see the CPI numbers come down, especially after last week’s unexpected positive jobs report on Friday.
Thursday – Jobless Claims – The forecast is more jobless claims than the week prior, but still under my important 300k threshold. The forecast is 263k new jobless claims.
Thursday – Producer Price Index (PPI) – Forecasts are showing a decrease from 1.1% down to 0.3%. If the number falls, that could mean a wider profit margin for companies or they could pass some of the savings on to consumers, resulting in lower prices.
Have a great week of trading!
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