A Hidden Market Disruption is Brewing
Something unexpected is happening in the smartphone world, and it could hit tech earnings harder than analysts expect. A booming black market has emerged, where certain devices are selling for thousands of dollars. The reason? A single app that people refuse to lose.
The app in question? TikTok.
Buyers are scouring eBay, Craigslist, and private resellers for old smartphones that have remained untouched. Devices that haven’t been reset or updated are commanding shocking premiums.
The Silent Threat to Apple, Samsung, and Google
With recent government bans restricting new downloads, TikTok has become digital contraband, and the resale market for devices that still have it installed is going wild. Prices are soaring on online marketplaces for iPhones and Androids that haven’t been updated.
If influencers successfully persuade users to avoid software updates or hardware upgrades, it could wreak havoc on Apple, Samsung, and Google’s earnings. These companies rely on consumers replacing their devices regularly—often through minor performance downgrades that encourage upgrades.
If enough people hold onto their older phones, upgrade cycles could be thrown off, impacting sales and threatening growth projections. Apple and Google, in particular, have built their business models around ecosystem control—where operating system updates ensure customers stay locked into their services. A large-scale hesitation to update would be a direct challenge to that strategy.
Earnings Warning: Could This Hit Q1 Reports?
Smartphone makers are already facing an uphill battle. Global device shipments have been stagnating, and the recent wave of AI-enhanced apps hasn’t been enough to push the needle. Now, with TikTok influencers actively discouraging consumers from upgrading, Wall Street may soon see downward revisions to revenue forecasts for companies that depend on refresh cycles.
If Apple, Samsung, or Google acknowledge this issue in their next earnings calls, it could spark a new round of volatility in tech stocks. Investors should be on high alert for any hints that device makers are seeing upgrade hesitancy tied to the TikTok ban.
In the meantime, Apple (AAPL) is enjoying a bullish bounce off its 200-day moving average and could be on its way to challenging old highs around $260.
And Alphabet is struggling to move the needle beyond its resistance area. Any negative news could add to their difficulty.
Overall, the markets are recovering somewhat after the DeepSeek news rattled them. The S&P 500 is marching once again toward the double-top area of $610 (SPY). It’s not great news when it needs to use up so much of its energy and bullish volume just to get back to a previous level, especially since it’s rejected that level twice already. This market is highly reactive to negative news and that poses a problem when something even as silly as people holding onto their phones to keep access to a single app comes across the news wire.
The Bottom Line: A New Kind of Disruption
While Wall Street watches DeepSeek, another tech-driven disruption is unfolding. The TikTok phone resale boom isn’t just a curiosity—it’s a warning sign. If smartphone manufacturers can’t counteract this trend, they could see cracks forming in their upgrade-dependent business models.
The market is changing, and fast. Investors and tech giants alike would be wise to pay attention—not just to what’s happening in AI, but to what’s being hoarded in people’s pockets.
